A Missing Data on Covid-19 Forecasts

 Citation:

Raúl Isea (2021) A Missing Data on Covid-19 Forecasts. International Journal of Coronaviruses - 3(2):27-31. https://doi.org/10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-21-3918

PDF: https://openaccesspub.org/article/1685/ijcv-21-3918.pdf

Abstract

Mathematical and computational studies of Covid-19 have underestimated the influence that other countries have on their daily records. To visualize this, a Granger causality analysis was implemented in Python to determine if the cases registered in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and the USA have any effect on Venezuela, and between all of them. Finally, this paper highlights the need to incorporate causality analysis employing only the cases of Covid-19 to improve mid and long term forecasts.

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CV en Español En 1993 obtiene la licenciatura en Física en la Universidad Central de Venezuela, y posteriormente obtiene el Doctorado en Ciencias Química en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid en 1996, gracias a una beca otorgada por la Agencia de Cooperación Internacional AECI - España. El Postdoctorado lo realiza en Venezuela en el Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas - IVIC (1997 hasta 1999), e inmediatamente después en Estados Unidos, en Rice University - Texas (1999-2000). Desde el 2001 hasta Junio de 2007 se desempeño como Investigador Asociado en el Centro de Cálculo Científico Universidad de Los Andes en Mérida - Venezuela. Actualmente es Investigador Asociado en la Fundación Instituto de Estudios Avanzados – IDEA en Baruta, Venezuela. CV in English Raul Isea is currently an associate researcher at the Fundación Instituto de Estudios Avanzados IDEA in Caracas-Venezuela. He got the Ph.D in Chemistry ( Universidad Complutense de Madrid –Spain) in 1996 and the B.S
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